Ban With The Bull, Chill With The Bear: The Coming Collapse of Marijuana Prohibition

[Editor's note: The July 2009 issue of Socionomics has an interesting essay and series of graphs that seeks to look 5-10 years into future regarding the decidedly declining public, political and business support for cannabis prohibition. Socionomics is a subscription based publication, and the graph and first 500 words of the essay are re-printed with permission.]

The Coming Collapse of a Modern Prohibition

History shows that mood governs society’s tolerance for recreational drugs. A rising social mood produces prohibition of substances such as alcohol and marijuana; a falling mood produces tolerance and relaxed regulation. In the case of alcohol, the path from prohibition to decriminalization became littered with corruption and violence as the government waged a failed war on traffickers. Eventually, as mood continued to sour, the government finally capitulated to public cries for decriminalization as a means to end the corruption and bloodshed.

We predict a similar fate for the prohibition of marijuana, if not the entire War on Drugs. The March 1995 Elliott Wave Theorist first forecasted the Drug War’s repeal at the end of the bear market and in 2003, EWT stated that during the decline, “The drug war will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized.”

The Case of Marijuana
Social mood influences people’s actions and their social judgments. In times of positive mood, people have the resources to enforce their social desires. They can afford to express the black and white moral issues preferred during bull markets, and drug abuse is a favorite target.

During times of negative mood, on the other hand, society’s priorities change. People have other, bigger worries and begin to view recreational drugs as less dangerous, if not innocuous in offering stress relief, pain reduction and the ability to cope with the pressures of negative social mood.

Over the past 100 years, governmental activities have manifested these changing attitudes. During periods of rising mood, policymakers stepped up regulation of cannabis. During periods of falling mood, they eased those same stances.

As shown in Figure 1, each legislative attempt to restrict marijuana use followed at least three, and in most cases four or five, bull-market years. In 1937, Congress passed the Marijuana Tax Act. The law banned casual consumption of the drug and limited its use to specific medical and industrial purposes. Franklin Roosevelt signed the law at the top of a roaring bull market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average having quintupled from its 1932 low. The real crackdown, however, came over a decade later during the massive wave III bull move.

The Boggs Act, which increased drug use penalties fourfold, and the Narcotics Control Act, which increased penalties another eightfold, both came during the most powerful portion of wave 3 of III of the bull market. Then in 1958, after four more years of rising mood, Wisconsin farmers harvested the last legal crop of U.S.-grown hemp. In 1989, President George H.W. Bush’s famous “War on Drugs” speech came on the heels of seven years of net progress in the stock market. In 1999, a year before the top of the Grand Supercycle bull market, the DEA banned the importation of hemp products that contained even a trace of Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), marijuana’s psychoactive ingredient.

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Tags: ban-with-the-bull, coming, coming-collapse, drug, Government, july-22nd, july-23rd, NORML Executive Director, people, prohibitionists, social, socionomics

Update From NORML’s ‘A Different Kind Of Tea Party’ Tax Day Protest

NORML Executive Director Allen St. Pierre presented a mock check to the U.S. Treasury Department in the sum of $14 billion this morning at a press conference on the steps of the General Post Office in New York City.

The $14 billion check total represents the combined savings and tax revenues that would be generated by regulating the sale and production of cannabis like alcohol, according to a 2005 analysis by Harvard University senior lecturer Jeffrey Miron and endorsed by over 500 distinguished economists.

Media representatives from CNN, Fox News, Sirius Satellite Radio, and other news outlets were on hand to cover the event.

“On a day when so many Americans lament having to pay state and federal income taxes, we’re representing America’s millions of otherwise law-abiding cannabis consumers, who are ready, willing, and able to contribute to our struggling economy — while providing truly ‘green’ jobs and allowing police to focus on more important priorities,” NORML told reporters. “All we ask in exchange for our $14 billion is the right to enjoy pot responsibly and in peace.”

Additional background information and photos from this morning’s event are available at The Huffington Post here, and at The Hill’s Congress blog here. As always, NORML encourages you to leave your feedback in support of marijuana law reform at these to influential blog sites.

NORML is holding follow up, public protest later today at 4:20pm est. We hope to see you there!

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Update From NORML’s ‘A Different Kind Of Tea Party’ Tax Day Protest

Tags: Allen St. Pierre, article, chair, congress, drug, Government, media, message, New York City, News, norml, people, tea party, Time

A Different Kind Of ‘Tea Party!’

What would you do with an extra $14 billion dollars? NORML will be asking the Obama administration that very question tomorrow when Executive Director Allen St. Pierre will present a mock check to the U.S. Treasury Office at a press conference on the steps of the General Post Office in Midtown Manhattan in New York City.

WHO
Representatives of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws, including NORML’s National Director Allen St. Pierre, and New York NORML

WHAT
Marijuana law reformers will present a $14 billion check to the U.S. Treasury

WHEN
April 15th, 2009 at 8:00 AM (press conference with mock check) and 4:20 PM presentation of check with NORML supporters.

WHERE
The steps of the General Post Office in Manhattan
441 Eighth Ave
New York, NY

If you reside in the New York area, please consider showing your support for marijuana legalization by attending this event.  Taxing and regulating doesn’t just make sense, it makes ‘cents’ too!

Legalizing Pot Makes Lots of Cents for Our Cash-Starved Government
via Alternet.org

What could you do with an extra $14 billion dollars? Members of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML) and other likeminded organizations will be asking government officials that very question on Wednesday, April 15th, when they present a mock check to the U.S. Treasury Office.

“We represent the millions of otherwise law-abiding cannabis consumers who are ready, willing, vocal and able to contribute needed tax revenue to America’s struggling economy,” says Allen St. Pierre, NORML’s Executive Director. “All we ask in exchange for our $14 billion is that our government respects our decision to use marijuana privately and responsibly.”

But it’s not just NORML that is calling on lawmakers to tax and regulate marijuana. In today’s economic climate, the question is: who isn’t?

Late last month, during President Barack Obama’s first-ever Internet Town Hall, questions pertaining to whether legalizing marijuana like alcohol could help boost the economy received more votes from the public than did any other topic. The questions’ popularity — and the President’s half-hearted reply (”No,” he laughed.) — stimulated a torrent of mainstream media attention. In the past two weeks alone, commentators like David Sirota (The Nation), Kathleen Parker (Washington Post), Paul Jacob (TownHall.com), Clarence Page (Chicago Tribune), and Jack Cafferty (CNN) have all expressed sympathy for regulating pot. Even Joe Klein at Time Magazine weighed in on the issue, writing this month that “legalizing marijuana makes sense.”

It makes cents too.

According to a 2005 analysis by Harvard University senior lecturer Jeffrey Miron — and endorsed by over 500 distinguished economists — replacing pot prohibition with a system of taxation and regulation similar to that used for alcohol would produce combined savings and tax revenues of between $10 billion and $14 billion per year.

A separate economic analysis, conducted by George Mason University professor Jon Gettman in 2007, estimates that the total amount of tax revenue derived from cannabis could be far higher. According to Gettman, the retail value of the total U.S. marijuana market now stands at a whopping $113 billion per year. Using standard tax percentages obtained from the Office of Management and Budget, he calculates that the diversion of this market from the taxable economy deprives taxpayers of $31.1 billion annually.

For local and state governments, taxing and regulating pot could help reduce growing deficits. For instance, in Oakland, California the City Council gave preliminary approval last week to a proposal to raise the business tax paid by city-licensed medical marijuana dispensary operators. Council members estimate that the new tax will raise anywhere from $400,000 to a “couple million” dollars annually.

Likewise, lawmakers in Massachusetts and California are debating statewide measures to tax and regulate the production and sale of cannabis to adults. Both state proposals would impose a fixed excise tax on the retail production of marijuana — non-retail cultivation would remain untaxed — as well as sales taxes on the commercial sale of the drug to anyone 21 years and older.

“The revenue effect of the proposed Act is an estimated annual revenue gain of $1.339 billion,” says the California State Board of Equalization and Taxation, which is backing the measure. A more liberal economic assessment performed by California NORML’s Dr. Dale Gieringer estimates that the annual revenues raised via the advent of a legal cannabis industry in California could be far higher.

“A comparable example would be California’s wine industry,” Gieringer wrote in a 2009 report. “With $12.3 billion in retail sales, the wine industry generates 309,000 jobs, $10.1 billion in wages, and $2 billion in tourist expenditures. Extrapolating these figures to a legal marijuana market, … one might expect $12 to $18 billion in total economic activity, with 60,000 to 110,000 new jobs created, and $2.5 to $3.5 billion in legal wages, which would generate additional income and business taxes for the state.”

Finally, taxing and regulating cannabis would have the added bonus of taking the production and trafficking of pot out of the hands of criminal enterprises and, increasingly, drug gangs. According to the Associated Press, marijuana is the “biggest source of income” for Mexican drug cartels. Legalizing pot would eliminate this primary income source for these cartels and, in turn, eliminate much of the growing violence and turf battles that currently surround the drug’s illegal importation from Mexico.

Any way you look at it, legalizing cannabis just “makes sense.” So why aren’t we doing it?

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A Different Kind Of ‘Tea Party!’

Tags: April 15, april-16th, California, country, General Post Office, Government, Marijuana, media, norml, Obama, office, president, Tax Day

Who Are You II: Industrious & Smart - More SAMHDA Stats on Adult Marijuana Users

A commenter named Christopher on the NORML Blog had this to mention about my previous Who Are You? post:

I would like to know the percentage of smokers, from those charts, that are successful. The biggest argument I hear is that Marijuana makes you lazy and unable to do real work. So what percentage of average smokers are bums and what percentage are productive members of society?

Ask and ye shall receive. According to the Quick Tables at SAMHDA based on results from the 2007 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, people who have smoked pot are better educated and work harder than people who never have smoked pot.

Now it’s likely the employment data have changed since 2007, but at first glance, it appears that the majority of people employed full-time and the majority of the unemployed have smoked marijuana. The 43.5% figure for the part time workers makes sense, if you figure that more low-skilled, part-time positions are likely to face a drug test.

Employment Status of American Adults

Based on the responses, about two-thirds (67.8%) of all American adults are employed part-time or full-time, and the unemployed account for 3.2% of all adults (remember, 2007 figures, plus these numbers will vary from official unemployment statistics because some of those “others” would be counted as unemployed, but aren’t in this survey.)

Employment Status of American Adults Who Have Ever Used Marijuana

But when you break these numbers down for only those American adults who have used marijuana, we find that over three-quarters (78.3%) of all marijuana users are employed part-time or full-time. To be fair, a larger proportion (4% vs. 3.2%) of marijuana users are unemployed than the proportion for all adults, but not so much as to be statistically significant.

Frequency of Marijuana Use by Full-Time Employed Adults who Used Marijuana at least Once per Year

There are 12.9 million American Adults, out of the 22 million total who have smoked at least once a year, who are employed full time. When we break down their use by frequency, we find the largest proportion, well over a third (36%) of full-time employed marijuana smokers are using more than 100 days per year. That’s 4.7 million full-time employed chronic marijuana users - and they can’t all be snowboarders, rappers, and head shop owners.

Educational Attainment vs. Marijuana Usage

Finally, almost half of American Adults who have one year or more of college education have smoked marijuana, while among those with only a high school diploma / GED or less educational attainment, about one-third have smoked marijuana. I’m not saying that smoking marijuana will make you smarter, but it seems the smarter you are, the more likely you’ll smoke marijuana.

So there you have it. The “average” pot smoker, if there is such a thing, is a white, college educated, full-time employed male under the age of fifty. In other words… ME!

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Who Are You II: Industrious & Smart - More SAMHDA Stats on Adult Marijuana Users

Tags: april-15th, april-20th, family, Government, intelligence, NSDUH, people, Statistics

Who Are You? US Government Statistics on Adult Marijuana Users

The US Government’s Substance Abuse and Mental Health Data Archive (SAMHDA) is a treasure trove of information from the National Surveys on Drug Use & Health 2001-2007. I’ve always been uncomfortable discussing most marijuana statistics from this and other reports because the data so often cover marijuana use from age 12 and older. NORML stands for the responsible adult use of marijuana, so I wanted to know the facts on age 18 and older (some may wish for numbers age 21 and older; I only picked 18+ because the first data column is age 18-25).

The essential caveat: these are the people who will tell these things to a stranger for a government survey.

First of all, how many adults in the United States have ever smoked weed? The Survey breaks down the data by age categories and gives the percentage of the sample (Unweighted N) that answered yes or no to the question. Then they extrapolate, based on US adult population demographics, how many people in the United States (Weighted N) would answer yes or no.

US Adults Who Have Ever Used Marijuana by Age

That’s 95 million folks who’ve smoked herb.  The percentage is how many within that age group have used - a majority of 18-25s and 35-49s and real close on the 26-34s.  Or look at it this way: If you see someone under age fifty, flip a coin. Heads, they’ve smoked pot, tails, they haven’t.

When you look at the population of adults who have ever used marijuana, we find that young people (18-34) and middle-aged people (35-50) are equally represented at 36% of the population.

More fun with government numbers and Excel 2007 after the break…

US Adults Who Have Used Cannabis, by Race/Ethnicity

Well over two-thirds of people who have ever smoked pot are white, and only one-fourth are black or Latino. This is an interesting fact to note when compared to the proportions of white, black, and Latino people arrested, convicted, and incarcerated for marijuana.  (Hint: those brown pie slices get a whole lot bigger.)

While Latinos make up the second largest share of adults who’ve used cannabis, that is primarily due to their numbers in the overall population.

Adults Who Have Ever Used Cannabis by Race/Ethnicity

When broken down by racial/ethnic groups, we find that Hispanics are actually less likely to have used cannabis than any other group but Asians (about 1 out of 4 Latinos have used marijuana and only 1 out of 6 Asians… no matter what Cheech & Chong and Harold & Kumar may have led you to believe.)

US Adults Who Use Marijuana Annually by Age

Concentrating only on the 22,003,805 estimated American adults who have used cannabis at least once in the past year yields some interesting figures as well. As expected, younger people are the most likely cannabis consumers. A full 28% of people aged 18-25 use cannabis annually, and over 11% are using cannabis more than 100 days per year, more than the 9% who use less than monthly. But by ages 26-34, all those figures drop by half or more (so much for the new Pot 2.0’s addictive powers.) By ages 35-49, even though chronic and occasional/rare use drops by half again, there are still one out of twelve middle-aged Americans using marijuana at least once per year.

US Adult Chronic Marijuana Use by Age

36.9% of all annual adult marijuana smokers use marijuana more than 100 times per year, meaning there are an estimated 8,120,045 chronic tokers out there. Almost half of these users are aged 18-25.

So remember, dear marijuana smoker, you are not alone. 95,916,972 American adults have used marijuana. 22,003,805 American adults have used marijuana this year. 8,120,045 American adults have likely used marijuana today. If only 1% of people who smoked pot today donated a dollar to NORML, we’d beat our advertising fundraising goal four times over.

Tags: California, Connecticut, demographics, Government, Kentucky, marijuana use, Massachusetts, Medical Marijuana, Montana, New Hampshire, Raid